Decision Journal
Log AI-assisted or manual investment theses. Grade actual outcomes against conviction over time.
How grading works
- Return = directional P&L from entry to resolution price (spot if unresolved).
- Alpha vs HODL = your directional return minus a passive long from the same entry.
- Brier score = (conviction − outcome)² — lower is better, 0.25 is a coin-flip.
- Correct = price moved in your predicted direction; neutral wins if |return| < 10%.
- Open theses can be resolved manually or when their horizon elapses.